The Commanding Heights (Part 3): The New Rules of the Game (cont.)
...
Chapter 9:
NARRATOR: In the early '90s, David Lee returned to his
homeland for the first time in over four decades.
Onscreen caption:
DAVID LEE: I was always afraid to go back to a communist country. I was born in
This is a free-trade zone. Anything you do in here you don't have to pay tariff,
or you can build the thing and then ship it out for export purposes.
NARRATOR: David Lee set up a joint venture in a free-trade zone near
Onscreen caption: Economic reforms lifted 300 million Chinese out of poverty.
In villages across
The era of globalization saw the largest wave of human migration in history.
Eighty percent of the world's future economic growth is expected to occur in
cities rather than the countryside.
LIN SHENGXIN, Factory Worker,
Onscreen caption:
NARRATOR:
LEE KUAN YEW, Senior Minister of
NARRATOR: Since the 1970s, the countries of
DANIEL YERGIN: They called it the Asian economic miracle because the world had
not really seen that kind of economic growth, that many people brought out of
poverty, that rapid a creation of a middle class so quickly anywhere in the
history of the world.
NARRATOR: By the mid-90s, many Asian economies were growing at the astonishing
rate of 10 percent or more each year.
LEE HSIEN LOONG, Deputy Prime Minister of
DANIEL YERGIN: I remember the CEO of one major company in about 1995 or so
saying, "If we're not investing in
Chapter
10: The Japanese Paradox [
Onscreen caption:
NARRATOR: Yet there was one big exception.
KAORI MARUYA, Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs,
Onscreen caption: Japanese banks hold $1 trillion in bad debts.
NARRATOR:
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA, Vice Minister of Finance, Japan, 1997-1999:
NARRATOR:
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA: One sector of the Japanese economy is an export-oriented
sector which is highly competitive, consisting of Toyotas and Sonys. And the
other is domestic manufacturing sector which is extremely uncompetitive. We have
a market-oriented capitalistic system on the one hand; we have a very
socialistic, egalitarian sector on the other.
NARRATOR: In
MASAHISA NAITOH, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Japan, 1961-1993: I wanted to
deregulate our financial system. The new global markets of the 1990s created a
new reality. I said we had to change for
NARRATOR: Naitoh was fired without warning.
Chapter
11: Global Contagion Begins [
Onscreen caption:
By early 1997,
SIRIVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN, Former Real Estate Developer,
I looked at the golf course. It's designed by Jack Nicklaus. I put my effort
into making it one of the most beautiful condominiums in
ANAND PANYARACHUN, Prime Minister of Thailand, 1991-1993: People were just
buying apartments and condominiums like they were gambling. And they were
tempted by this easy money, tempted by this easy profit.
NARRATOR: During the '90s,
ANAND PANYARACHUN: People would come and knock on your door and plead with you
to borrow, be they European or Japanese banks. The Western financial world, the
banks or the financial companies, they came and begged us to borrow from them.
NARRATOR: In just four years, loans to Thai businesses had tripled to over $200
billion. American and European governments encouraged the inflow of money.
ROBERT RUBIN: Oh, yeah. We were very strong advocates of opening up capital
markets and the benefits that could flow there from, but we were also strong
advocates at the same time, because we recognized the tie of developing the
banking systems, the capital markets, and developing regulatory systems, none of
which is easy.
DANIEL YERGIN: And there was an underlying flaw in the system that people really
didn't focus very much on, which was the institutional weakness. What that meant
is the banking systems were not well developed; securities laws were not well
developed. They had not kept up with the development of these economies and
their integration into the world economy.
NARRATOR:
The International Monetary Fund, which acts as a bank of last resort to
countries in financial trouble, began to worry that
STANLEY FISCHER, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund,
1994-2001: I went to
NARRATOR: Muang Thong Thani was a sign of the times -- a "
MARK MOBIUS: The vision was great. The vision was to take this huge tract of
land and build a city, basically. between the downtown congested
NARRATOR:
MARK MOBIUS: The Central Bank kept saying no, no, no. And they were shelling out
the U.S. dollars to protect the currency. So their foreign reserves were
dwindling, and of course any hedge fund manager looking at that would say,
"Hey, these guys are going to be in trouble, and I'm going to short the
Thai baht."
NARRATOR: The baht came under relentless market pressure. In July 1997, the Thai
government was forced to devalue.
The bubble had burst. The Asian financial crisis was about to begin.
SIRVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN: When the crisis hit, I realized my fate. I could not
sell a single unit when the crisis hit.
My condominium is called the American dream home, dream condominium. But we are
broke. Even my clients who were multibillionaires are broke also.
NARRATOR: The economic shock reverberated throughout all levels of Thai society.
PANJIT NIYOMDET, Factory Worker,
NARRATOR: The cost of living was rising. Everything was going up -- water,
electricity, even soap. But the salaries were staying the same, or going down.
With its economy in a virtual free fall,
No one imagined that an economy as small as
Chapter
12: Contagion Engulfs
LEE HSIEN LOONG: I think they misjudged the situation. They misjudged the
situation, probably because it was seen too much as a financial issue rather
than an overall strategic issue.
NARRATOR: Global markets worried that other Asian countries might have similar
hidden flaws. Like a classic run on the bank, money began to pull out of the
entire region. They called it contagion.
Onscreen caption: $116 billion flowed out of Southeast Asian markets.
DANIEL YERGIN: And at each stage, the crisis turned out to have a virulence that
became known as contagion, much greater than anticipated. And what that really
reflected was indeed globalization, was the way these economies had become
locked together and investors looked at emerging markets. They said there was a
problem in
Onscreen caption:
NARRATOR: Contagion spread to
MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD: We have the currency going down and down and down, and we
have the stock market doing the same. The index kept on going down, no matter
what we do. And we felt totally helpless. We felt that there was no way we could
recover. So, I mean, the feeling was very bad, very frightening.
Onscreen caption:
NARRATOR: Contagion next hit
LEE KUAN YEW: The fund managers didn't know the difference between
NARRATOR: This was a new kind of financial crisis, unlike anything the
International Monetary Fund had ever encountered. The IMF organized huge loans
for
NARRATOR: To some of the region's entrenched leaders, the IMF's conditions
smacked of a new kind of colonialism.
MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD: Presently we see a well-planned effort to undermine the
economies of all the Asian countries by destabilizing their currencies.
In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then
you could control that country. Today it is not necessary at all. You can
destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make a request for help, and for
the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and
when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have
colonized that country.
NARRATOR: The market forces were simply too powerful for the IMF, or any
government, to contain. In late 1997, contagion reached
EISUKE SAKAKIBARA: It was unbelievable that the crisis had spread as quickly as
to Indonesia and Korea, and within a matter of six months or seven months. But
the world was much globalized that we thought it was at that time.
Onscreen caption: Seoul, Korea, December 1997
ROBERT RUBIN: In the last week of December of 1997, the 11th largest country --
economy, rather -- in the world, which was Korea, had roughly speaking $4
billion of reserves left and was using reserves at the rate of $1 billion a day.
Well, it didn't take a great deal of quantitative insight to see that that was
not a long-term viable situation.
NARRATOR: Korea had been misleading the world, claiming it had enough money to
withstand the crisis. The IMF's Stanley Fischer arrived in Seoul to inspect the
Central Bank's accounts.
STANLEY FISCHER: I visited Korea a couple of days before they turned to the IMF
for help, and it was a circus atmosphere. It was a state of panic, and it was at
that point that I went to the Central Bank and was shown how much money was left
in the Korean Central bank. It was essentially all gone.
NARRATOR: Korea was about to default on its loans from Japanese and Western
banks. Pressured by their governments, the banks agreed to share some of the
pain: They rolled over their loans.
Onscreen caption:
LEE HSIEN LOONG: If they had done that in Thailand, I think that they would have
not only avoided some economic problems, but I think that a sense in Southeast
Asia that the Americans were really on the side of putting things right would
have been stronger.
Chapter
13:
WILLIAM McDONOUGH, President, Federal Reserve Bank of
Onscreen caption:
NARRATOR: Markets thought contagion had been contained in
WILLIAM McDONOUGH: Investors had decided Russia is an ex-superpower; it has lots
of missiles and lots of atomic warheads -- certainly you could not have a
financial accident in Russia, because the rest of the world, the rich countries,
would bail Russia out. Well, it turned out that that was wrong.
NARRATOR: Russia defaulted on its debt. Its currency plummeted. Global investors
were stunned.
WILLIAM McDONOUGH: All these people who in the previous seven months had decided
there was no risk anywhere literally panicked and decided there's got to be
massive risk everywhere. Behind each fence and barnyard wall there must be a
risk that we hadn't though of, you know, like the redcoats retreating from
Lexington.
NARRATOR: Everywhere, markets were freezing up. The economic crisis seemed to
have taken on a life of its own.
ROBERT RUBIN: I thought at the time that I had a pretty good sense of what was
going on. But what I didn't know, and nobody could possibly have known, was not
what was going on at the moment that you were looking at, but what was going to
happen at the next moment.
RICHARD GEPHARDT, Democratic Leader, U.S. House of Representatives: When you get
in a room with both Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin and they say they're scared
to death, and they've never seen anything like this, and they're worried about
whether they can get through it, I get worried, because they know a heck of a
lot more about it than I do. You had the contagion sweeping across the
developing countries. As Rubin said, we'd never seen that before. I mean, maybe
in the Depression they saw that over a period of time, but nothing happened that
quickly.
Chapter
14: The Crisis Reaches
NARRATOR: Now the crisis had reached
Long Term Capital Management, or LTCM, directly controlled $100 billion of
global assets and, indirectly, more than a trillion dollars.
JON CORZINE, Co-chairman, Goldman Sachs, 1994-1999: The '90s saw a huge buildup
in concentrations that we had never seen on a global scale. Maybe we had way
back in history. Maybe the Romans had financial institutions that were
disproportionately large to the overall activity of the world that they operated
in, but LTCM was a specific type of hedge fund. They were involved whether it
was the Singapore exchange, the Tokyo stock exchange, the London stock exchange,
the New York. There was no market that they weren't [involved in] -- maybe the
largest player, or close to the largest player.
NARRATOR: By September 1998, LTCM's losses were spiraling out of control.
Contagion had arrived on Wall Street. Incredibly, the failure of this single
investment fund threatened the entire global economy.
DANIEL YERGIN: If LTCM went down, it would be just the gears, the machine just
stopping, the economy not working. And of course it's not just what's on the
balance sheet of banks and so forth, but that would translate into people not
working, businesses not operating, small businesses not being able to get their
capital they need. And this in a global economy. It was almost inconceivable to
see what the picture was, but it was sort of just not working, and people just
not working.
NARRATOR: The New York Federal Reserve summoned representatives of major U.S.
and European banks to an urgent meeting. Jon Corzine, then at Goldman Sachs, was
among them.
JON CORZINE: The real problem of Long Term Capital was nobody really understood
all the downsides. All one knew was it was going to be extraordinarily dangerous
to enter into that. And everybody, I think, understood the Fed's concern that
that had real implications to the real economy.
NARRATOR: Since LTCM was a private fund, the government could not impose a
solution. The fate of the global economy was in the hands of these bankers.
WILLIAM McDONOUGH: The head of a securities firm or a bank is not paid to be a
patriot. He or she is paid to serve the best interests of the shareholders, so
the most that one could do in a position like mine is to say the public interest
may well be served by Long Term Capital Management not failing, but there is no
public-sector money to solve the problem. The taxpayer is not going to do this.
You folks have to decide whether it's in your interest to do it.
NARRATOR: The banks agreed to put up their own money to rescue LTCM. Wall Street
had averted disaster, but the global crisis had one final chapter to go.
Onscreen caption:
What had started in
It worked. Brazil's problems were contained. Global financial markets gradually
returned to normal.
ROBERT RUBIN: Well, and it's not clear when you would say it ended, but what
happened was that the countries that actually took ownership of reform -- Korea,
Thailand, the Philippines, Brazil -- began to reestablish stability in their
financial markets, and their economies started to recover. And after a while
there came a point we began to feel, "Well, maybe we're past the
crisis." Then a little bit past that we said, "You know, it does look
like we are past the crisis." And finally we got to the point where we
said, "Well, we think this is over."
NARRATOR: The world economy had survived the first crisis of the globalization
era, but millions of ordinary people had paid the price.
ANAND PANYARACHUN: And that's the unfortunate part of so-called globalization,
because such negative effects can be totally responsible, can come very fast. It
takes decades for a country to grow up to a certain level, and all of a sudden
it disappears.
SIRIVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN: We've been a poor country, so we never tasted richness.
When we tasted the richness, we wanted more, being greedy. I blame myself also;
I never had enough.
Yeah, it's quite a view, and I really feel bad because no one can enjoy it now.
It's all left to the bank. Nice fairway and nice lake. It's so sad.
I had a big dream and couldn't achieve it. That's why I am today standing
selling things for two hours. But after four years of struggling, at least I
know I have a chance. Today my big dream is to be McDonald's of Thailand,
because selling sandwiches on the streets, now I've developed a new Japanese
sushi. I use Thai brown rice. I am the first in Thailand. So hopefully in the
near future I will raise my funds in the local stock market so in the future I
will be McDonald's of Thailand.
Chapter
15: The Global Debate [
NARRATOR: The global economy rested on institutions that
dated back to the end of the second world war. The contagion crisis proved that
the new era of globalization needed new rules.
WILLIAM McDONOUGH: We have to improve the rules of the game. You want the
financial system essentially to be like the shock absorber in a car. When you
hit a pothole the car still bounces, but have you ever been in one that didn't
have a shock absorber? If you have a good, strong shock absorber, at least you
get through the pothole and you're still driving in the same direction that you
thought you were when you hit it.
LEE HSIEN LOONG: I think the morale is that there are risks to globalization.
But in the end there is no alternative to globalization. So don't let your banks
go lend recklessly; don't allow bubbles to get out of hand. Keep prudent
measures, sound economic policies which will inspire confidence and maintain
confidence so in a crisis people will know that you will stay the course and
won't panic and be up and off. It's easier said than done, but these are the
principles you have to follow.
NARRATOR: For many Americans, the world financial crisis created new unease
about the risks of the global economy.
LORI WALLACH, Global Trade Watch: People sense the instability of it. They get
indicators of it, but they sense it. They get indicators like big meltdowns,
like the financial crises in
NARRATOR: For critics like Lori Wallach, this was an opportunity. Together with
allies in labor unions, they began to channel public anxiety into what came to
be known as the anti-globalization movement.
Chapter
16: The
Onscreen caption: 
The World Trade Organization, known as the WTO, manages the rules that govern
global trade. In late 1999, delegates from 135 nations gathered in
DANIEL YERGIN: As one could see from the way
LESBIAN AVENGERS: The WTO, which is led by CEOs of the company that make bovine
growth hormone, get to make rules saying that these countries can't ban an
unsafe product.
NARRATOR: While the protestors represented an array of interest groups, the
majority were from American labor unions, which had bussed in thousands of their
members.
THEA LEE: People came together from all over the world in
NARRATOR: In the 1990s, the expanding
THEA LEE: Our workers are in direct competition to workers overseas. We can't
control whether every single job stays in the
NARRATOR: Countries that opened their markets saw their overall wealth and
living standards increase, yet the politics of trade were less straightforward
than the economics.
THEA LEE: The truth is that the business community has very good access to the
international institution and to their own governments. And we hit the streets
because we feel that we have a hard time getting our government to listen, or
that our governments are unresponsive to the concerns that we've raised. And we
think we can do better. We think we could write a set of rules for the global
economy that would ensure that corporations had to live up to a minimum
standard.
NARRATOR: But inside the
JAIRAM RAMESH, Senior Economic Advisor to
NARRATOR: Developing countries forged a negotiating bloc to make Western markets
more open.
DELEGATE: This should not be a time when big countries, strong countries, the
world's wealthiest countries, are setting about a process designed to enrich
themselves.